The UnAustralian

Thursday, February 27, 2003
 
Global Warming Emission Scenarios: Part 2

One test of the development scenarios applicability, is how well do they compare with historical growth rates. Here are some numbers:

Growth Rates of Income Per Capita 1990 - 2050 (%)

























Historical A1 A2 B1 B2
Industralised World 2.9 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.4
Developing World 2.7 4.9 2.4 4.2 3.8


The historical period refers to 1950 - 1990.

When we extend the timeline to 2100, the growth rates all significantly drop.


























Historical A1 A2 B1 B2
Industralised World 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.5 1.2
Developing World 2.7 4.0 2.2 3.5 2.8

| 11:22 PM